Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
2.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.5%
$4.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves strictly against an official, named primary source: Google's Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The rules provide precise navigation instructions and specify that resolution occurs as soon as the 2026 list is released, leaving virtually no room for subjective judgment. Note that Google's Year in Search rankings reflect trending spikes in search interest rather than total search volume, but the rules clearly state resolution depends solely on this specific published list. A clear fallback deadline of March 31, 2027 handles the contingency of Google failing to publish the list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu will be ranked number one in Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The market resolves No if any other person is ranked #1 on the list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market is decided by Google via its published list on the Google Trends Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the specified list by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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