Will Robert Downey Jr. be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
1¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1%
$1.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a single, well-defined official release: Google's Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The rules specify the exact category, geographic scope, and primary location to find the list. A clear fallback date of March 31, 2027, is provided in the event the list is not published, resolving to Other. The outcome leaves minimal room for ambiguity or administrative discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Robert Downey Jr. will be ranked as the number one individual on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Robert Downey Jr. is ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual holds the number one rank on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the official 2026 list is released. Google's published Year in Search list decides the outcome.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this deadline.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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