Will Matt Damon be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
1.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.4%
$1.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves strictly against an official named publisher, Google, using its Year in Search 2026 Global People rankings. The navigation path and list criteria are clearly identified, leaving minimal decider discretion. A specific fallback date of March 31, 2027 handles the possibility that Google does not publish the list. While Google's Year in Search measures trending search traffic rather than absolute raw search volume, the rules make the exact list and measurement unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Matt Damon will be the number one individual on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Matt Damon is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual holds the #1 ranking on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution can occur as soon as the official 2026 list is released, and the outcome is determined solely by the list published by Google.
Key dates
- Release deadline for fallback resolution: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the specified 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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