Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1%
$2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines a clear, objective outcome tied directly to a specific official publication: Google's Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The resolution path and source are clearly designated, leaving no room for decider interpretation. There is a precise backstop deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if Google fails to publish the list. The only minor nuance is that Google's Year in Search reflects trending search spikes rather than absolute raw search volume, but the rules explicitly define the exact list and category to be used.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lamine Yamal will finish ranked #1 on Google's Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. Notably, while the question phrasing refers to "this year," the resolution rules specifically evaluate Google's official rankings for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lamine Yamal is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the specified list published by Google, regardless of the exact navigation procedure used to access it.
Key dates
- Release deadline for fallback: — If Google has not released the specified list for 2026 by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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