Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
1.7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$1.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines its resolution criteria around an official, single data source: Google's Year in Search Global 'People' list for 2026. The URL navigation path is detailed, early resolution is triggered upon list publication, and a precise timeout date of March 31, 2027 is provided if the list is not published. Note that Google's Year in Search reflects trending spikes in searches rather than total absolute search volume, but the rules precisely tie the outcome to Google's published ranking.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Cristiano Ronaldo will rank #1 on Google's official Global Year in Search "People" list for 2026. The question mentions "this year" while the rules specifically define resolution based on the 2026 release.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Cristiano Ronaldo is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual ranks #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the official 2026 list published by Google, expected on the Google Trends Year in Search hub under Global trending people.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Google's Year in Search Global "People" list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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