Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Last captured price
3.85¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.85%
$1.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a specific, named official source: Google's Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The criteria are clear, pointing directly to the #1 ranked individual on the official Google Trends page under the specified category. Timing is straightforward, resolving as soon as Google publishes the 2026 list, with a defined fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to "Other" if no list is released. There is minimal decider latitude and no unexpected clauses.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicolás Maduro will be ranked as the number one individual on Google's Year in Search Global People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Nicolás Maduro is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves No if any other individual occupies the #1 spot on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Google's official published list decides the outcome, and the market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released.
Key dates
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the specified 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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