Will Scarlett Johansson be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
1.7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$1.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly define the outcome using an official, objective source: Google's Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The resolution path and source navigation are explicitly detailed, and the decider has virtually no discretion. A clear fallback date of March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET is provided if Google fails to publish the list. The only minor nuance is that Google's Year in Search ranks trending spikes rather than raw total search volume, but the rules explicitly state that the official published list determines the result regardless.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Scarlett Johansson ranks #1 on Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. Although the title refers to "this year," the resolution rules specifically designate the 2026 list.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Scarlett Johansson is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual holds the #1 spot on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is published. Google's published list on the Google Trends Year in Search hub decides the outcome.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 Global People list by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.