Will Chappell Roan be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
0.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.5%
$3.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact metric and resolution source, identifying the official Google Year in Search Global People ranking for 2026. The criteria detail where to locate the list on Google Trends and provide an unambiguous fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if the list is not released by then. Because resolution relies directly on a single authoritative ranking published by Google with clear navigation steps and explicit cutoff dates, there is minimal room for interpretation or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Chappell Roan is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market features a specific fallback resolution to "Other" if the official list is not published by the end of March 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chappell Roan is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is officially released. Google's published Year in Search list on its Google Trends platform decides the outcome, regardless of the navigation procedure used to access it.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google Trends Year in Search Global People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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