Will Patrick Mahomes be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2%
$1.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact resolution source and list: the #1 individual on Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global 'People' ranking on Google Trends. Navigation instructions and fallbacks are straightforward, with an explicit early resolution provision once the list publishes and a clear deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if no list is released.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Patrick Mahomes will be ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Patrick Mahomes is the individual ranked number one in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another person holds the number one rank on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution may occur as soon as the 2026 list is released, regardless of navigation procedure. The deciding source is Google's official Year in Search list published on the Google Trends Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — If Google has not released the specified list by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026 published by Google
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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