Will Josh Allen be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
0.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.5%
$1.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact source and list used for resolution: Google's official Year in Search Global 'People' ranking for 2026. The resolution criteria rely directly on the individual listed at the top spot on Google's published page, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation. A concrete fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, resolves the market to 'Other' if Google fails to publish the list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Allen will rank #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. Although the title asks about "this year", the rules explicitly evaluate the 2026 ranking list.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Josh Allen is the individual ranked #1 on Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided using the official list published by Google, expected on the Google Trends Year in Search hub under Global trending people.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — If Google has not released the specified list for 2026 by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google (Google Trends Year in Search)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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