Will JD Vance be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$5.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact source and metric used for resolution: Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global list under the People category. While Google's Year in Search lists reflect trending search spikes rather than cumulative absolute search volume, the rules leave no doubt about which specific published ranking determines the outcome. A clear fallback deadline of March 31, 2027 is provided if the list is not released.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether JD Vance is ranked as the #1 person on Google's Year in Search Global list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if JD Vance is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list for 2026 by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the specified list published by Google.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google's Year in Search Global People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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