Will Jacob Elordi be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
0.7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.7%
$4.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact source and path on Google Trends required for resolution, pointing directly to the official 2026 Global Year in Search list under the People category. Resolution relies on an objective ranking published by Google rather than subjective reporting. A clear fallback date of March 31, 2027 is provided in the event Google does not release the list, resolving the market to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jacob Elordi will rank #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. Notably, while the question asks about "this year," the resolution rules specifically evaluate the ranking for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Jacob Elordi is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves No if any other individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to "Other" if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution may happen as soon as the 2026 list is released. The resolution source is the official list published by Google on its Year in Search platform.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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