Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
10¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10%
$32.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a definitive, named official source: Google's Year in Search 2026 global 'People' list. The rules provide specific navigation details for finding the exact ranking on the Google Trends portal and clarify that resolution is based directly on the individual listed at rank number one. There is an explicit fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to an alternate outcome if Google does not publish the list. Because the decider only needs to read a single rank from a designated official publication, resolution mechanics are clear and leave minimal room for discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bad Bunny will rank as the number one individual on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Bad Bunny is ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves No if any other individual ranks number one on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market is decided by the specified list published by Google on its Google Trends Year in Search hub and may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released.
Key dates
- Release cutoff deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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