Will Caitlin Clark be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$1.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact metric and source: the individual ranked first on Google's official Year in Search Global 'People' list for 2026. Resolution relies entirely on Google's published list without requiring subjective interpretation or multi-source consensus. The rules also provide a clear deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if Google fails to publish the list by then. One minor detail to note is that Google's Year in Search tracks trending search spikes rather than raw total search volume, but the rules explicitly name the exact published list that governs resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Caitlin Clark ranks as the number one individual on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. Notably, the rules explicitly designate the 2026 ranking despite the title referencing this year.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Caitlin Clark is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The market resolves No if any other individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the official 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the official list published by Google on its Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- Release deadline for fallback resolution: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the specified 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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