Will LeBron James be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
1.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.1%
$787.5 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves directly from Google's official Year in Search Global 'People' list for 2026, available via Google Trends. A specific navigation path and source URL are provided, leaving no room for decider interpretation. There is a clear fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, if Google fails to publish the list. One nuance to keep in mind is that Google's Year in Search lists reflect trending search traffic rather than total absolute search volume, but the rules explicitly point to the designated official ranking.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether LeBron James will be ranked the number one searched individual on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if LeBron James is ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual is ranked number one on this list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list for 2026 by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the official Year in Search list published by Google.
Key dates
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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