Will Pedro Pascal be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$1.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact metric and source: Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. Resolution depends directly on who holds the number one rank on that specific list, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or decider discretion. Clear navigation instructions are provided, the market resolves as soon as the data is released, and a definitive fallback rule handles the possibility of Google not publishing the list by March 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pedro Pascal will rank #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. While the title refers to "this year," the resolution rules specifically bind resolution to the 2026 annual release.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Pascal is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution can occur as soon as the 2026 list is published. The market resolves based on the official list published by Google on the Google Trends Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — Google must release the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET, or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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