Will Billie Eilish be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$1.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the exact source and metric for resolution, which is the #1 ranked individual on Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global 'People' list. The source is a single named authority with explicit instructions on which page and navigation path to reference. There is an early resolution trigger upon publication, accompanied by a precise longstop deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if the list is not published by Google.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Billie Eilish will rank first on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. Notably, the market rules specify the 2026 rankings despite the title referencing "this year."
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Billie Eilish is ranked number one in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another person is ranked number one on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Google's published Year in Search list serves as the deciding source. Resolution can occur as soon as the 2026 list is released.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this date.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.