Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
0.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.5%
$18K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact metric, list, and resolution source: the number one ranked individual on Google's official Year in Search Global 'People' list for 2026. A specific navigation path is provided to locate the ranking on Google Trends. The market resolves as soon as the official list is published, with a clear fallback resolving to Other if Google fails to release the list by March 31, 2027. Note that Google's Year in Search reflects top trending searches rather than raw total search volume, but the rules explicitly bind resolution to Google's official ranking list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elon Musk will be ranked number one in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk is ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked number one on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by the official list published by Google on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, regardless of navigation procedure, and may occur as soon as the 2026 list is released.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google does not release the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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