Will Sabrina Carpenter be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
1.85¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.85%
$726.8 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify that the outcome depends entirely on the person ranked number one on Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global 'People' list. Google's published list is the sole authoritative source, leaving no discretion to third-party deciders. Participants should note that Google's Year in Search measures trending search spikes rather than raw total search volume throughout the year, but the rules explicitly point to this specific list. A definitive fallback to 'Other' applies if Google fails to release the list by March 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sabrina Carpenter is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sabrina Carpenter is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other person is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution can occur as soon as the 2026 list is released. The resolution source is the official list published by Google.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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