Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$76.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify an exact, authoritative primary source: Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global People ranking. Navigation paths and resolution criteria are explicitly laid out. The timeline is well-bounded, resolving once Google publishes the 2026 list or resolving to Other if no such list is released by March 31, 2027. Note that Google Year in Search lists typically rank top trending spikes rather than overall search volume, but the market strictly binds resolution to the explicit official list title and placement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump will be ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves as soon as the 2026 list is released, based on the official list published by Google.
Key dates
- List release cutoff: — The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.