Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
0.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$2.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly identify Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global People list as the sole resolution source, providing the specific URL and navigation path. A hard deadline of March 31, 2027, resolves the market to Other if Google fails to publish the list. One nuance is that Google's Year in Search ranks trending spikes rather than absolute raw search volume, but the rules explicitly tie resolution directly to the designated list's #1 spot.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin will be ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin is ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual ranks number one on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve immediately once the 2026 list is released. The deciding source is the official ranking published by Google.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if the list is not released by this time.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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