Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
17.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17.5%
$98.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an exact, official resolution source: the individual ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. Although the title refers to most searched, the rules explicitly clarify that the ranking comes directly from the designated Google Trends Year in Search page rather than raw query volume metrics. Resolution occurs as soon as Google publishes the 2026 list, with a definitive backstop deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if unreleased.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Erling Haaland will rank number one on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Erling Haaland is ranked number one in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves No if another individual ranks number one on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released, and resolution is decided by the official list published by Google.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this deadline.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list on the Google Trends Year in Search hub
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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