Will Kylian Mbappé be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
1.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.1%
$1.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define resolution based on a specific, named official source: Google's official Year in Search Global 'People' list for 2026. The rules specify the exact navigation path on the Google Trends hub and clarify that the ranking stands regardless of future interface changes. Resolution occurs as soon as Google publishes the list, with a clear fallback rule resolving the market to Other if Google fails to release the list by March 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kylian Mbappé will be the individual ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Kylian Mbappé is ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The market resolves No if another individual is ranked number one on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released, regardless of navigation changes. Google's published list serves as the deciding source.
Key dates
- Release cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this deadline.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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