Will Lionel Messi be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
2.55¢
−0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.55%
$4.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines its outcome through an unambiguous, objective source: Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global People list. Although Google's Year in Search tracks trending search spikes rather than absolute cumulative search volume, the rules explicitly anchor resolution to that specific published list. The decider has no discretion, navigation pathways and fallback criteria are clearly spelled out, and a specific deadline of March 31, 2027 resolves the market to Other if Google fails to publish the list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lionel Messi ranks as the number one individual on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lionel Messi is ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual holds the number one rank on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by the specified list as published by Google, expected on the Google Trends Year in Search hub under Global trending people, regardless of navigation changes. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — If Google has not released the specified 2026 list by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global People list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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