Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
5.55¢
+0.7¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.55%
$9.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an exact resolution source: the number one ranked individual on Google's official Year in Search Global 'People' list for 2026. A specific fallback date of March 31, 2027, resolves the market to Other if Google does not publish the list. There is virtually no source discretion or wording ambiguity involved.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether figure skater Alysa Liu will rank #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. Notably, while the question asks about "this year", the rules specifically evaluate the 2026 ranking.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Alysa Liu is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves No if any other individual ranks #1 on this list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve as soon as the list is released, determined exclusively by Google's published list on the Google Trends Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- List Release Deadline: — If Google has not released the 2026 list by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026 published on the Google Trends Year in Search hub
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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