Will Neymar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Current price
2.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.05%
$517.6 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules rely on a single, clear official source: Google's Year in Search Global People list for 2026. The source URL, exact navigation path, and ranking position are explicitly defined. The market resolves as soon as the official list is published, with a clear fallback clause resolving to Other if Google fails to publish the list by March 31, 2027. Note that Google Year in Search historically reflects trending search spikes rather than total absolute volume, but the rules remove ambiguity by explicitly tying resolution to the official published list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Neymar will be ranked the number one searched individual worldwide in Google's Year in Search for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Neymar ranks #1 on Google's official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual ranks #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market is decided by the official list published on Google Trends Year in Search.
Key dates
- Fallback resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google Trends Year in Search Global People list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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