Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an official government registry or specific primary source. The rules explicitly clarify what does and does not count as leaving office: scheduled departures, resignation announcements, caretaker roles, and provisional or temporary transfers of power do not qualify, as only permanent removal triggers resolution. In jurisdictions with closed political systems, establishing whether and when a leader has permanently relinquished power according to media consensus may require subjective determination.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kim Jong Un is the first listed leader to permanently leave office before 2027. Resolution depends on the order of departures among a predefined list, rather than Kim Jong Un leaving office in isolation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Kim Jong Un is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements, scheduled departures, temporary transfers of power, and caretaker or interim roles do not count as leaving office. The market resolves No if another listed individual ceases occupying their office first. The market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed individual meets the criteria by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed leader departs by this time
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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