Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on who permanently leaves office first among a set of leaders before the end of 2026. The rules clearly define what does and does not count as leaving office, explicitly excluding announcements of future resignation, scheduled departures, temporary impeachment suspensions, provisional transfers of power, and situations where the leader remains in a caretaker or interim capacity. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official gazette or governmental register, which leaves discretion to the decider when interpreting whether a power transition is fully final or merely interim.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Emmanuel Macron is the first among a listed group of leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. Resolution depends on actual, permanent removal rather than scheduled departures or interim transitions.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Emmanuel Macron if he is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his office before the deadline. Announcements, scheduled departures from election outcomes, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or provisional power transfers), and remaining in a caretaker or interim role do not count as leaving office. The market resolves No for Macron if another listed individual permanently leaves office first. The market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed leader meets the criteria by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- End date: — Deadline for any listed leader to permanently leave office before resolving to None before 2027.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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