Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution depends on whether Delcy Rodríguez is the first among a set of listed individuals to permanently leave office before December 31, 2026. Merely announcing a resignation, losing an election before handover, facing temporary impeachment suspension, or staying on in an interim or caretaker capacity does not qualify. Instead, the individual must fully and permanently cease occupying the office. Outcome determination relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specific official gazette or designated authority, which introduces judgment if the exact timing or legal finality of a transition is contested.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Delcy Rodríguez will be the first among a listed group of leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. Resolution requires an actual, permanent departure rather than just an announcement or temporary suspension.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Delcy Rodríguez is the first listed individual to cease occupying her listed office before the cutoff. An outcome qualifies only upon permanent removal; announcements of departure, scheduled election exits, temporary suspensions, or remaining in a caretaker or interim capacity do not qualify. The market resolves No if another listed leader permanently leaves office first. The market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed individual meets the criteria by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market cutoff: — Resolution defaults to 'None before 2027' if no listed leader permanently leaves office by this time.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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