Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the first leader among a defined list to permanently vacate their office before December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official government gazette or constitutional registry. Several strict exceptions apply: simple announcements of resignation, scheduled departures following an election, temporary suspensions like impeachment proceedings, and remaining in power under a caretaker or interim capacity do not count as leaving office. If no listed leader permanently exits before the deadline, the outcome resolves to 'None before 2027'.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Miguel Díaz-Canel is the first among a listed group of leaders to permanently cease occupying his office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Miguel Díaz-Canel is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of resignation or removal, scheduled departures from election outcomes, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or temporary 25th Amendment invocations), and continuing in a caretaker or interim role do not qualify. The market resolves No if another listed leader permanently leaves office first. The market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed individual meets the criteria by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides resolution.
Key dates
- Market end cutoff: — Deadline for a listed leader to permanently leave office.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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