Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
Last captured price
0.85¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.85%
$44.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes an exit from office, explicitly excluding announcements, scheduled future departures, temporary suspensions like impeachment proceedings, and caretaker or interim arrangements. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated official registry, giving the decider latitude to determine when a departure becomes permanent. Participants should note the precise cutoff on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, as well as the clause resolving to none if no leader departs permanently before that deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the first leader among a specified list to permanently leave office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his listed office before the deadline. Announcements of departure, scheduled post-election departures, temporary removals (such as provisional impeachment suspensions or 25th Amendment invocations), and transitions to caretaker or interim roles do not count as leaving office. The market resolves No if another listed leader is the first to permanently leave office, or to "None before 2027" if no listed individual meets the criteria by the deadline. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Market resolves to None before 2027 if no leader leaves office by this time.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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