Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Last captured price
2.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.3%
$38.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market turns on whether the named figure is the very first among the tracked group of leaders to permanently vacate office before the December 31, 2026 cutoff. The rules set specific operational boundaries: resignation announcements, pending election exits, caretaker roles, and temporary suspensions like impeachments do not qualify as leaving office. There is no single designated government registry or official source named, meaning resolution relies on assessing a consensus among credible media reports. Anyone following this market should also be aware that if any other listed leader exits permanently before this individual does, or if none depart by the deadline, the outcome will resolve negatively.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be the leader of Ukraine before 2027, with a specific focus on permanent, non-caretaker removal from office.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy permanently ceases to occupy his listed office as leader of Ukraine before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal, or a scheduled departure due to an election outcome, does not alone qualify; the removal must be permanent. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers of power, do not count. If Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues in a caretaker or interim role, he is not considered to have ceased occupying the office. The market resolves No if another individual listed in the market (not provided in the prompt) permanently ceases to occupy their listed office before Volodymyr Zelenskyy does. The market resolves to "None before 2027" if no listed individual meets the criterion of permanent removal from office by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date: — If no listed individual has been permanently removed from office by this date, the market resolves to "None before 2027".
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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