Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on the first listed leader to permanently leave office before the end of 2026. The rules clearly define departures, specifically excluding announcements, pending election exits, temporary suspensions such as impeachment trials, and caretaker or interim tenures until full departure occurs. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government notice, requiring the market decider to evaluate media coverage. Because this question asks if a specific leader is the next one out among a broader set of listed leaders, an exit by any other listed individual before this leader will cause this outcome to resolve negatively.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Javier Milei is the first among a listed group of leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. Resolution depends on actual, permanent removal rather than scheduled departures or temporary suspensions.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Javier Milei if he is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his office before the deadline. Mere announcements of departure or scheduled post-election departures do not count until permanent removal occurs. Temporary removals, provisional power transfers, or continued service in a caretaker or interim capacity do not qualify as leaving office. The market resolves No if another listed individual is the first to permanently leave office. The market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed leader permanently leaves office by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — Deadline for a listed leader to leave office before resolving to None before 2027
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.