Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on who permanently vacates office first among a group of listed leaders. A holder should note the specific exclusions regarding departures: election losses, planned resignations, and formal departure announcements do not trigger resolution on their own until the individual actually vacates the role. Additionally, remaining in an interim or caretaker capacity means the leader is still considered in office, which can delay resolution past election dates or resignation announcements. Resolution does not rely on an official government registry or gazette, relying instead on deciders evaluating a consensus of credible reporting to determine when permanent removal legally and factually occurred.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Anthony Albanese is the first among a listed group of leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. Resolution requires actual departure rather than mere announcements or scheduled exits, and temporary or caretaker roles do not trigger resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Anthony Albanese if he is the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying his office before the deadline. Announcements, scheduled departures from election outcomes, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or provisional power transfers), and remaining in caretaker or interim roles do not count as leaving office. The market resolves No if another listed leader permanently leaves office first. It resolves to "None before 2027" if no listed individual meets the departure criteria by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- End date: — Deadline to meet the departure criterion before resolving to None before 2027
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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