Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$667.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define market capitalization as total outstanding shares multiplied by the first-day closing share price on the primary exchange's official listing page. Precise procedures are established for currency conversion using the Federal Reserve's H.10 reference rate, handling trading interruptions, and breaking ties alphabetically. Early resolution to No applies if a company is acquired or merged before an IPO. Minor discretion exists only as a fallback if the primary exchange does not display the listing figure.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kraken will achieve the highest first-day closing market capitalization among all companies completing an IPO in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kraken completes an IPO between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and achieves the highest first-day closing market capitalization in USD among qualifying IPOs. If multiple companies tie for the highest market capitalization, the company whose name comes first alphabetically wins. The market resolves to No if another qualifying company achieves a higher market capitalization, or if Kraken becomes unable to complete an IPO (such as via merger, acquisition, or absorption by a public entity). First-day market capitalization equals total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing price on the primary exchange. Non-USD values convert via the Federal Reserve H.10 rate. Resolution is determined using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Key dates
- Tracking period start: — Start of the 2026 IPO tracking window.
- Tracking period end: — End of the 2026 IPO tracking window at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, with currency conversion via the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's H.10 foreign exchange reference rate.
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