Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Last captured price
35.85¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 35.85%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules provide clear and objective mechanics for determining market capitalization using total outstanding shares multiplied by the first trading day closing price from the primary exchange. Currency conversion relies on published Federal Reserve foreign exchange reference rates. Specific edge cases are thoroughly defined, including alphabetical tie-breaking, handling of market interruptions, and early negative resolution if an entity becomes ineligible through acquisition or merger. Because the market evaluates all IPOs across the entirety of 2026, final resolution requires waiting until the year concludes to compare all eligible debuts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering in 2026 and achieves the highest first-day closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars among all companies completing an IPO that year.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic completes an IPO between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and records the highest market capitalization based on its first-day official closing price in U.S. dollars, winning alphabetical order ties if needed. The market resolves No if another company achieves a higher first-day closing market capitalization, if Anthropic does not complete an IPO in 2026, or as soon as Anthropic becomes unable to complete an IPO due to merger or acquisition. Market capitalization equals total outstanding shares times the closing price on the primary exchange, converted to U.S. dollars via Federal Reserve H.10 rates if necessary. Resolution is determined by the primary exchange's official listing page or another reliable source.
Key dates
- IPO window start: — Start of the eligible IPO period.
- IPO window end: — End of the eligible IPO period at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Primary exchange's official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.