Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Current price
0.45¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$582.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define market capitalization using outstanding shares multiplied by the first-day closing price from the primary exchange. Detailed mechanisms govern currency conversion using official Federal Reserve H.10 reference rates, tie-breakers via alphabetical order, and handling of abbreviated trading sessions or market interruptions. Because the criteria rely on standard exchange reporting and explicit formulas, there is minimal decider latitude or ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and achieves the highest first-day closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars among all companies completing an IPO that year.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI completes an IPO between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and records the highest first-day closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars among all 2026 IPOs, including winning an alphabetical tiebreaker if market capitalizations are tied. The market resolves to No if another company achieves a higher first-day closing market capitalization in 2026, if OpenAI fails to complete an IPO in 2026, or as soon as OpenAI becomes unable to complete an IPO due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an existing public entity. Resolution is determined using the primary exchange's official listing page, with foreign currencies converted via the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's H.10 foreign exchange reference rate.
Key dates
- IPO window start: — Start of the eligibility period for IPO completions.
- IPO window end: — End of the eligibility period at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Primary exchange official listing page, with currency conversion via the U.S. Federal Reserve Board H.10 reference rate
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