Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$221.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the winning company is determined by multiplying total outstanding shares by the official closing price on the first trading day, converted to U.S. dollars via the Federal Reserve H.10 foreign exchange rate where necessary. The primary exchange listing page serves as the designated resolution source. Holding a position requires waiting through the full calendar year of 2026 to compare all eligible IPOs, though a candidate can resolve early to No if an event like an acquisition makes an IPO impossible. An explicit alphabetical tie-breaker handles any exact valuation ties.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether ByteDance achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars on its first trading day among all companies completing an IPO in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if ByteDance completes an IPO between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and attains the highest closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars on its first trading day. Market capitalization equals outstanding shares multiplied by the first-day closing price. If multiple companies tie for the highest market capitalization, the company whose name appears first alphabetically wins. The market resolves to No if another company achieves the highest first-day market capitalization in 2026, or as soon as ByteDance becomes unable to complete an IPO due to merger, acquisition, or absorption by a public entity. Non-USD values are converted using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board H.10 reference rate. Resolution relies on the primary exchange's official listing page or another reliable source.
Key dates
- IPO qualifying period start: — Start of the qualifying IPO window.
- IPO qualifying period end: — End of the qualifying IPO window at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Primary exchange’s official listing page
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