Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria for determining the outcome. Market capitalization is strictly defined as outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing price on the first trading day of 2026. Data is sourced directly from primary exchange listing pages, with explicit fallback procedures and specified Federal Reserve H.10 reference rates for non-USD conversions. Edge cases such as trading halts, mergers preventing an IPO, and exact valuation ties are comprehensively addressed with deterministic tie-breaking and resolution logic.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether SpaceX will have the highest market capitalization among all companies that complete an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2026. The market resolves based on the official closing price on each company's first trading day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if SpaceX completes an IPO between January 1 and December 31, 2026, and achieves the highest market capitalization based on its official closing price on its first trading day. Market capitalization is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically determines the outcome. The market resolves No if SpaceX does not have the highest market capitalization among companies IPOing in 2026, or if SpaceX becomes unable to complete an IPO in 2026, for example, due to acquisition or merger. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the primary exchange does not report in U.S. dollars, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate will be used for conversion. In case of a trading interruption on the first day, the official closing price of the abbreviated session will be used; if no such price is published, the next trading day's official closing price will be used as the first trading day.
Key dates
- IPO Window Start:
- IPO Window End:
Resolution source
primary exchange’s official listing page
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