Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$201.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the comparison metric as market capitalization calculated from total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing price on the first trading day, sourced directly from primary exchange listing pages. Explicit procedures cover currency conversions via Federal Reserve reference rates, trading interruptions, and alphabetical tie-breaking. Participants should note that the market spans the entire 2026 calendar year to determine the highest valuation, but individual options can resolve to No early if a company becomes definitively unable to complete an IPO.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Discord will achieve the highest closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars on its first trading day among all companies completing an IPO in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Discord completes an IPO in 2026 and has the highest U.S. dollar market capitalization based on its first-day official closing price and total outstanding shares. It resolves to No if another company achieves a higher market capitalization, or as soon as Discord becomes unable to complete an IPO due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by a publicly traded entity. If top companies tie in market capitalization, the company appearing first alphabetically wins. Primary exchange official listing pages decide market caps, with non-USD currencies converted using Federal Reserve H.10 rates.
Key dates
- IPO eligibility window starts: — Start of the 2026 calendar year window.
- IPO eligibility window ends: — Deadline is 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, with foreign exchange conversion via the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's H.10 reference rate.
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