Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$659.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated, defined as outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing price on the first trading day. The resolution source is explicitly designated as the primary exchange's official listing page, with a standardized foreign exchange conversion procedure using the Federal Reserve Board's H.10 reference rate if foreign currency conversion is needed. Well-defined fallback mechanisms cover currency conversions, trading halts, and alphabetical tie-breaks. Position holders should note the early resolution clause, which allows a candidate to be resolved to 'No' immediately if an acquisition, merger, or absorption makes completing an IPO impossible before the end of 2026.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Revolut will achieve the highest first-day closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars among all companies that complete an Initial Public Offering in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Revolut completes an IPO in 2026 and achieves the highest first-day closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars among all qualifying 2026 IPOs. Market capitalization is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies tie for the highest market capitalization, alphabetical order of the listed name decides. The market resolves to No if another company records a higher market capitalization, or as soon as Revolut becomes unable to complete an IPO in 2026 due to an acquisition, merger, or absorption by an existing public entity. Resolution is determined by the primary exchange's official listing page, converted to USD via the Federal Reserve Board's H.10 rate if necessary, or another credible source if unavailable.
Key dates
- IPO qualifying window start: — Earliest date for a company to complete an eligible IPO.
- IPO qualifying window end: — Deadline for completing an IPO in 2026.
Resolution source
Primary exchange's official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.