Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$345.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide precise criteria and explicit calculations for determining market capitalization on the first trading day. Outcomes rely on the primary exchange's official listing page with defined fallback procedures, and foreign currency values are converted using official Federal Reserve reference rates. Clear provisions govern edge cases, such as early resolution if an IPO becomes impossible, explicit handling of trading interruptions or abbreviated sessions, and an alphabetical tie-breaker if closing market capitalizations match exactly.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Waymo achieves the highest first-day closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars among all companies that complete an Initial Public Offering in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Waymo completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, and attains the highest market capitalization based on its first trading day's official closing price, or wins an alphabetical tie-breaker if values are identical. The market resolves to No if another qualifying company achieves a higher closing market capitalization, if Waymo fails to IPO in 2026, or as soon as Waymo becomes unable to IPO due to merger, acquisition, or absorption. Market capitalization equals total outstanding shares multiplied by the official first-day closing share price. Non-U.S. dollar values are converted using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board H.10 foreign exchange rate. Resolution is determined by the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Key dates
- IPO window begins: — Start of the 2026 eligibility window
- IPO window ends: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for completing an IPO
Resolution source
Primary exchange's official listing page
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