Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Last captured price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$635.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise mathematical and operational definitions for how market capitalization is calculated on each company's first day of trading. Explicit protocols govern foreign exchange conversion via the Federal Reserve H.10 release, trading interruptions, and alphabetical tie-breaking. Primary exchange listing pages serve as the named authority. Holders should note that options can resolve negatively early if a company becomes ineligible to IPO via acquisition or merger, and final comparison spans all eligible IPOs completed throughout the entire 2026 calendar year.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether SHEIN will achieve the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the closing price of its first trading day among all companies that complete an IPO in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if SHEIN completes an IPO between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and achieves the highest first-day closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars among all IPOs in that period. In the event of an exact tie for highest market capitalization, the company appearing first alphabetically wins. The market resolves to No if another company achieves a higher first-day closing market cap, or as soon as SHEIN becomes unable to complete an IPO due to merger, acquisition, or absorption by an existing public entity. Market capitalization equals outstanding shares multiplied by the first-day closing price. Non-USD figures convert via the Federal Reserve H.10 rate. The deciding source is the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Key dates
- IPO eligibility window start: — Start date for qualifying initial public offerings.
- IPO eligibility window end: — End time for qualifying initial public offerings.
Resolution source
The primary exchange’s official listing page, or another reliable source
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