Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 65% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $223K total volume
About this event
This event tracks conditional scenarios combining the status of a Hormuz agreement by October 23, crude oil prices staying below $80 before the midterms, and which political party (Republicans or Democrats) wins control of the US Senate.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a set of mutually exclusive conditional outcomes combining geopolitical, commodity price, and US Senate election results. The supplied text does not explicitly establish whether at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market evaluates a specific combination of three conditions: whether a Hormuz agreement occurs by October 23, whether oil remains below $80 prior to the midterms, and whether the specified party wins the Senate. The detailed resolution criteria reference an external document, but specific criteria are not detailed in the supplied text.
Key dates
- Hormuz agreement deadline: October 23 (year not stated in the provided text)
- Oil price observation window: Before the midterms
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 65% | ▲ 1 | Can't assess | High | |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 32% | ±0 | Can't assess | High | |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 2% | ±0 | Can't assess | High | |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 2% | ±0 | Can't assess | High |