Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
Current price
65.2¢
+0.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 65.2%
$41.9K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market does not provide substantive text for its resolution criteria directly, only pointing to an external link. Without accessible, explicit rules detailing the resolution mechanism, criteria, and authoritative sources within the provided text, an assessment cannot be performed.
Cannot assess: The market has no resolution rules to assess. (rules_absent)
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a compound condition involving a Hormuz agreement by October 23, an oil price threshold of at least $80, and the Democratic Party winning the Senate is met.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the specified conditions regarding no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil reaching at least $80, combined with the Democrats winning the Senate, are satisfied according to the rules document. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. The rules document linked in the market description defines the official terms and resolution process.
Key dates
- Hormuz condition date: — Date specified for the Hormuz agreement condition.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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