Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
Current price
32.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 32.35%
$53.9K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The provided text does not contain substantive resolution rules and instead only links to an external document, making it impossible to assess the market's specific resolution criteria, timing, or sources directly from the provided text.
Cannot assess: The market has no resolution rules to assess. (rules_absent)
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures a compound condition involving whether there is no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil reaches at least $80, combined with Republicans winning the Senate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the specified compound conditions regarding the Hormuz agreement, oil price, and Senate outcome are satisfied according to the linked rules document. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. The rules document linked in the market description determines the exact resolution criteria.
Key dates
- Hormuz agreement evaluation date: — Date specified in the title regarding the Hormuz agreement condition
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.