Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
Current price
2.55¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.55%
$80K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market does not provide substantive text for its rules and instead only links to an external document, leaving the specific resolution criteria and conditions entirely undefined within the provided text.
Cannot assess: The market has no resolution rules to assess. (rules_absent)
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether three specific conditions occur: a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil prices falling below $80, and Democrats winning the Senate. It relies entirely on an external document for its detailed definitions and criteria.
How it resolves
The market refers to an external document for its specific resolution criteria. It resolves Yes if all specified conditions outlined in the linked rules are met. It resolves No if the conditions are not met according to the rules document. The rules text does not specify an explicit fallback outcome or a named deciding authority beyond the referenced document.
Key dates
- Hormuz agreement deadline: — Deadline mentioned in the question for the Hormuz agreement condition.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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