Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
Current price
1.45¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.45%
$71.7K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The provided text does not contain substantive resolution rules and instead only links to an external document, making it impossible to evaluate the resolution criteria.
Cannot assess: The market has no resolution rules to assess. (rules_absent)
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether three specific conditions occur concurrently: an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz by October 23, oil prices falling below $80, and the Republican Party winning control of the U.S. Senate.
How it resolves
The market rules rely on an external document linked in the market description. Specific conditions for resolving Yes, resolving No, or the designating authority are not detailed in the provided text.
Key dates
- Hormuz agreement deadline: — Date specified in the market question for the Hormuz agreement condition.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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