Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 38% (+3 pts in 24h) · first close Mar 1, 2027 · $67.4K total volume
About this event
This event tracks who will become the next Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, or if no qualifying minister takes office by the specified deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event functions as a mutually exclusive single-winner contest where at most one outcome can resolve Yes. Each candidate has an individual market, alongside a fallback option if no qualifying individual assumes office by the deadline.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes for the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. The appointment must be approved by the Knesset via a vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and subsequent replacements after an initial qualifying appointment will not affect the outcome. If primary responsibilities split across multiple successor roles, the person whose name comes first alphabetically qualifies. If no qualifying minister takes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to the fallback option.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline of 11:59 PM ET for a qualifying minister to assume office before resolving to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28'.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 38% | ▲ 3 | Med | Med | |
| Matan Kahana | 18% | — | Med | Med | |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 9% | ▼ 4 | Med | Med | |
| Amir Ohana | 1% | — | Med | Low | |
| Avi Dichter | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Gideon Sa’ar | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yossi Cohen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Ofer Winter | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Elazar Stern | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yoav Segalovich | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Bezalel Smotrich | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yair Golan | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Eli Cohen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yoram Cohen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Meirav Ben-Ari | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Ram Ben-Barak | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper) | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Talya Lankri | — | — | Not rated | — |