Will Matan Kahana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
Current price
17.5¢
Implied probability 17.5%
$9.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market contains several specific conditions that could catch participants off guard. Resolution specifically requires the minister to assume office in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker ministers and any appointments made during the current term. If the ministry is reorganized or renamed, determining which role constitutes the true successor position with primary responsibilities relies on judging a consensus of credible reporting. Additionally, an unusual tie-breaking rule resolves the market based on alphabetical order of the ministers' full names if responsibilities are split across multiple roles. Official Israeli government records serve as the primary source, but reporting consensus is permitted as an alternative.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Matan Kahana will be the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Matan Kahana is the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of National Security (or an approved successor position retaining primary responsibilities) in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or appointment vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count. The market resolves to another candidate or No if someone else assumes the role first, or resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28" if no qualifying individual assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If responsibilities split among multiple successor roles, the person whose full name comes first alphabetically resolves the market. Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — Market resolves to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' if no qualifying minister assumes office by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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